As a follow up to our recent post trying to explain the principle of “Housing Affordability Threshold” (HAT), we thought we would analyze the statistics to see what in means in terms of the number of seniors being impacted with increasing real estate taxes.
First, allow us to show you our source documents:
Lake County Profile
Seniors in Lake County (2) (Note: there are 4 pages of information)
Based on these documents, we were able to develop a “Population Census Projections” for Lake County. We have the estimated population until 2030 for four age groupings: Age 65+, 45 – 64, 20 – 44, and under 20 years of age. It is estimated that by 2030 there will be ~62,000 (27.3%) over 65 years of age, with only ~47,700 (21.0%) under 20 years of age.
We believe everyone will agree that Lake County has an aging population. However, what does this mean for seniors and their Housing Affordability Threshold? Based on the raw statistics provided by the Center for Community Solutions, we were able to extrapolate the estimated number of seniors, renters and home owners, that will exceed the 30% Housing Affordability Threshold.
We have been VERY conservative in our projections. We are assuming no new tax levies ! We know that is not going to happen, but since we do not have the gift of prophecy, we made the most conservative estimate that the current HAT % (27.1% for homeowners, and 53.5% for renters) remains constant through 2030 and only the 65+ population increases.
What the numbers tell us is this:
In 2018 – the population over 65 years of age is ~ 47,093 and 14,520 already are at or exceed 30% HAT. That is ~6.3% of the estimated Lake County population and 30.8% of seniors
By 2030 – the estimated population over 65 will be 62,019, and 19,122 seniors will be at or exceed 30% HAT. This is estimated to be 8.4% of the total population, and an additional 31.7% of seniors impacted – even assuming no new property taxes.
When we factor in the new property tax levies that are sure to be passed, the number of seniors we are driving into poverty will be much more than 8.4% of the population.
We are trying to make politicians and anyone else that will listen aware of the fact that there is a looming crisis in the next 12 years that is about to engulf the seniors of Lake County unless we provide them relief from the ever increasing property taxes.